Beyond Doomsday Predictions: Focus On What You Can Control For Generative AI
How AI Leaders Can Upskill Their Teams In Times Of AI Hype And Uncertainty
Generative AI Predictions Everywhere
There’s hardly a week that goes by without a high-profile individual or organization making a prediction on the impact of generative AI — on a domain, on an industry, or on humanity. Whether it’s highly optimistic, touting the productivity gains generative AI will unlock or a thoroughly dystopian view on AI threatening humanity.
Let’s face it: These headlines and predictions grab our attention; mostly for a news cycle or two. And it’s tempting to give in to the debate what all of this could mean, how realistic it is, and when it will become reality. But the fact is that it’s just a prediction. An approximation. A guess. And it’s often one that involves data that is opaquer than the “black box” model that is supposedly going to “impact the way we do X”. Here’s why — and what you can do…
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The Challenge With Predictions
The first half of 2023 has already produced a number of studies, reports, and open letters on the impact of generative AI. Several of them provide an optimistic perspective on the impact on work and productivity while others warn about the risks of AI for humanity. For example:
Productivity-centric predictions
37% improvement in white-collar productivity from using ChatGPT — Experimental Evidence of the Impact on Productivity from Generative AI (Noy & Zhang, 2023)
14% higher productivity when using generative AI — Generative AI at Work (Brynjolfsson, Li & Raymond, 2023)
7% growth in global GDP by 2030; impact on 300MM jobs — Goldman Sachs: Generative AI Could Raise Global GDP By 7% (Goldman Sachs, 2023)
Risk-centric predictions
6-month pause on training generative AI models more powerful than GPT-4 — Pause Giant AI Experiments: An Open Letter (Future of Life Institute, 22 March 2023)
Existential risks to humanity — “The Godfather of A.I.’ Leaves Google And Warns Of Danger Ahead (The New York Times, 01 May 2023)
“Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war.” — Statement on AI Risk (Center for AI Safety, 30 May 2023)
The biggest challenge with the latest set of predictions that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) will threaten humanity is simple: Unless those ringing the alarm bells have direct knowledge of something that the rest of the AI practitioners (and the general public) have not, these predictions are hard to evaluate. And we quickly drift into speculations, personal opinions, and beliefs — none of which are particularly helpful when you have an immediate task in front of you, leading AI products and projects.
What AI Leaders Can Do Instead
Instead of pondering who’s right or wrong, how soon these predictions will become reality, or what the motivations are for making those predictions, focus on your team’s most tangible goal: »How can we create value for our organization with the help of AI?«
Generative AI is a new topic for most teams building AI-enabled products. It adds additional aspects to your repertoire and requirements as an AI leaders: From understanding ethical, reputational, and data privacy risks to technical topics like fine-tuning and model operations. To stay current on the latest generative AI aspects, expand your skillset and encourage your team to do the same. That’s why we will cover exactly these topics on the next three episodes of “What’s the BUZZ?”.
Register for free via the links below. Have your questions answered live by top experts in their field:
June 8 - Ravit Dotan, Director The Collaborative AI Responsibility Lab at University of Pittsburgh, will join when we cover how responsible AI practices evolve in times of generative AI.
June 20 - Aurélie Pols, Data Privacy Expert & Advisor, will join as we discuss how leaders can shape their business’ accountability for generative AI.
July 6 - Abi Aryan, Machine Learning Engineer & LLMOps Expert, will share how you can fine-tune and operate large language models in practice.
August 1 - Scott Taylor, aka “The Data Whisperer”, will let us in on how effective storytelling help you get AI project funded.
So, what’s your prediction about the impact of generative AI?
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What’s next?
Join me at these upcoming events
June 8 - Panel discussion with Transatlantic AI eXchange on Web 3.0 Generative and Synthetic Data Application.
July 10 - Monday Morning Data Chat with Joe Reis & Matt Housley on whether your business should chase generative AI.
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Together, let’s turn hype into outcome. 👍🏻
—Andreas
“And we quickly drift into speculations, personal opinions, and beliefs — none of which are particularly helpful when you have an immediate task in front of you, leading AI products and projects.”
This statement is gold! :)